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Boys may be missing out due to gender bias in predicted A-level grades, study finds

Boys may be missing out due to gender bias in predicted A-level grades, study finds

New research suggests boys are more likely than girls to receive lower predicted A-level grades despite achieving the same final results.

An elevated view of a spacious examination hall shows secondary school students seated at their desks, each absorbed in their exam papers. The hall is quiet and orderly, with students concentrating intently, creating a focused and studious atmosphere.

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Published: July 29, 2026 at 1:50 PM

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Teachers may be unintentionally predicting lower A-level grades for boys than girls who go on to achieve the same exam results, according to new research.

The study, which was published this week in the Economics of Education Review, found that girls were more likely to receive better predicted grades, despite achieving the same final A-level results as comparable boys. Researchers say there is no evidence teachers deliberately favour girls, but suggest wider impressions of pupils' motivation and engagement could be influencing predictions.

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Predicted grades continue to play a major role in UK university admissions, with most offers made months before students receive their final exam results - so this bias could impact boys' university hopes.

A consistent "pro-girl" gap across A-level subjects

Researchers from the Universities of Cambridge and Bristol analysed data from more than 350,000 students in England across three university application cycles between 2017 and 2019.

The study identified a consistent "pro-girl" gap in predicted grades across 10 A-level subjects.

Depending on the subject, girls were between 3% and 11% more likely than boys to have their grades overpredicted. They were also between 15% and 41% less likely to have their grades underpredicted.

On average, girls received predictions between one tenth and one fifth of a grade higher than boys. For example, girls were predicted around 0.17 of a grade higher in Physics and 0.13 of a grade higher in Sociology.

Dr Konstantina Maragkou, lead author of the study from the University of Cambridge's Faculty of Education, said even relatively small differences could matter.

"It is very unlikely that teachers deliberately predict better results for girls, but they may be relying on an impression of student characteristics which can lead to gendered predictions. We need to think carefully about how fair that is for young people when the stakes are so high," she says.

It is very unlikely that teachers deliberately predict better results for girls, but they may be relying on an impression of student characteristics which can lead to gendered predictions.

Dr Konstantina Maragkou

Why might girls receive higher predicted grades?

The researchers do not believe teachers are intentionally favouring girls.

Instead, they suggest teachers may be taking into account broader characteristics such as motivation, diligence and classroom engagement when estimating future performance. Girls also tend to have stronger overall academic records, which may contribute to these impressions.

The study suggests this may create a "halo effect", where positive perceptions of a student's wider abilities influence predictions about their academic potential.

To explore this further, the researchers looked beyond A-level performance alone. They compared pupils with the same final A-level grades and similar earlier academic records, using Key Stage 2 and GCSE results to measure what they describe as "cross-disciplinary competence".

When prior academic performance was taken into account, the picture changed significantly. The advantage for girls reduced by around 70% in non-STEM subjects such as English Literature and reversed in STEM subjects, where boys received slightly higher predicted grades.

According to the researchers, this suggests broader academic profiles may be influencing teacher expectations, rather than performance in individual subjects alone.

What could this mean for university admissions?

Predicted grades remain an important part of the UK university admissions process, with universities making conditional offers before students sit their final exams.

The researchers say this means even small differences in predictions could affect which students receive offers from selective universities or competitive degree courses.

The findings are likely to reignite debate over predicted grades. Organisations including The Sutton Trust have previously called for reforms, while the Government consulted in 2020 on introducing a post-qualification admissions system, where university applications would be made after students receive their results. The proposal was not adopted.

More research is needed

The researchers also found the gender gap was most noticeable among lower-achieving students, where predicting future performance may be more difficult.

Although they adjusted for factors including socioeconomic background, ethnicity, class size and school attended, the findings remained consistent.

The authors stress that more research is needed to understand exactly why these differences occur. They also note that official guidance states predicted grades "should be independent of student behaviour or background".

After discussing the findings, Dr Maragkou said any future reform should involve teachers, policymakers and researchers.

"Teachers are not supposed to base predicted grades on students’ character, but they are probably not doing so consciously. We also need to ask whether it is always wrong, conceptually, to consider broader qualities that affect academic success. These are difficult questions and they deserve careful consideration," Dr Maragkou says.

For families, predicted grades can shape the university choices a teenager feels confident applying for. While final offers depend on achieved A-level results, predicted grades remain an important part of the admissions process.

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