The surprising link between Middle East oil strikes and the cost of baby essentials explained

Energy strikes abroad have sent gas prices soaring. Here’s how it could affect nappies, formula and family budgets.

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Published: March 19, 2026 at 12:23 PM

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From nappies and baby formula to your monthly energy bill, the cost of raising a child in the UK is closely tied to something you might not expect, global gas and oil prices.

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This week, energy markets surged after fresh strikes hit major gas facilities in the Middle East. While the conflict is thousands of miles away, the ripple effect could eventually be felt in British homes, including by parents already juggling rising childcare and grocery costs.

Here’s what’s happened, and why it matters for families.

What’s going on in the Middle East?

Gas prices jumped by around 25% on wholesale markets in the UK and Europe after Iran's South Pars gas facility was hit. Iran later targeted a major liquefied natural gas export facility in Qatar, reportedly causing "extensive damage".

According to the BBC, UK gas prices are currently up about 25% to around 175p per therm. In Europe, prices are now more than double the level seen before the US-Israeli war with Iran began.

Oil prices also spiked, with Brent crude rising by 10% to above $119 a barrel at one stage before easing slightly.

Matthieu Favas, commodities editor at The Economist, described the scale of the rise as "huge" when speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

This could last months and these facilities provide a fifth of the global supply of liquid natural gas, which is why the market is reacting the way it is now, it's pricing in long-lasting disruption.

Matthieu Favas, commodities editor at The Economist

He explained that the attack makes a quick restart of affected facilities unlikely, raising fears of prolonged disruption to global energy supply. However, he also noted that prices remain well below the record highs seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Qatar’s interior ministry said it had "initially brought the fire in Ras Laffan under control, with no injuries reported", but uncertainty is continuing to unsettle markets.

The surprising link to nappies and formula

So how does a gas facility in Qatar connect to the cost of raising a baby in the UK?

Energy underpins almost every stage of modern manufacturing and transport. When wholesale gas and oil prices rise, it can increase costs across the supply chain, including:

Oil is a key ingredient in plastics, which are widely used in baby products, from nappy linings to packaging. Higher oil prices can mean higher production costs.

Gas is also heavily used in manufacturing and food production. If companies face sustained increases in their energy bills, some of those costs can eventually filter down to shoppers.

It does not mean prices will jump overnight. Many manufacturers buy energy in advance or hedge prices, which can soften short term shocks. But if disruption continues for months, as markets are currently pricing in, the pressure could build.

What about your energy bill?

For many families, heating and powering the home is already one of the biggest monthly expenses.

While wholesale prices are not the same as what households pay, sustained increases can influence future energy price caps and tariffs. If gas remains expensive, it may put upward pressure on bills later in the year.

That is particularly relevant for families with babies and toddlers, who often need warmer indoor temperatures, frequent laundry cycles and round the clock hot water.

Is this another 2022-style spike?

At this stage, it is too early to say.

Although the recent jump is significant, prices are still below the extreme peaks seen in 2022. Much will depend on how long facilities remain disrupted and whether the conflict escalates further.

Markets are reacting to uncertainty. If production resumes more quickly than feared, prices could stabilise. If not, the effects could be more noticeable over time.

Should parents be worried?

There is currently no sign of product shortages in the UK, and there is no need to stockpile baby essentials.

If you are concerned about rising costs, practical steps may include:

For now, the connection between events in the Middle East and the cost of raising a child in the UK is indirect, but real. In a global economy, energy prices travel fast.

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We will continue to track what it means for family finances and share practical, parent-focused updates as the situation develops.

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